California’s Formula for Failure on Homelessness

When authorities closed the Modesto Outdoor Emergency Shelter (MOES) late in 2019, city officials said they expected “a possible increase in homeless-related issues and illegal camping in the downtown area.” At the time it was shut down, MOES had almost 500 residents. The expansion of a nearby shelter increased capacity to 182 beds, nowhere near enough for even a majority of MOES residents.

That initial shortfall in shelter capacity has never been remedied as current homeless numbers in Modesto exceed available shelter capacity by a ratio of over two to one. Moreover, the expected “increase in homeless-related issues” in Modesto has in fact happened, with the number of citations for such “crimes” as blocking sidewalks and breaking park curfews rising almost fivefold since the 2020-21 fiscal year.

And while an almost fivefold increase in homeless-related issues in Modesto may seem excessive, it’s only a fraction of the actual number of cases within the region. Major unacknowledged effects of chasing homeless people from Modesto city limits include the costs for county sheriffs, railroad police, Caltrans authorities and other entities, including private security.

When homeless people are rousted from one location, they move to another. So while a homeless camper may no longer be within Modesto jurisdictions, the odds are almost certain that that same camper will be at a location nearby, whether on private property, or within county or Caltrans jurisdictions.

Sweep on Seventh Street Modesto 3 March 2025
Forced to move in the rain, Modesto, 3 March 2025

Relocation to another jurisdiction is an inevitable consequence of the one inescapable reality homeless people face every hour of every day: They have nowhere to go. When rousted from one jurisdiction, homeless people move to another. When chased from that location, they often go back to the first.

Many of the original residents of MOES for whom there were no shelter beds in 2019 are still within two or three miles of the former tent city six years later. Most have stayed at a shelter at least once, and many several times. Almost none can stay the extended periods needed to acquire housing, even when there’s enough room for them.

One longtime shelter resident, Daniel Shockley, finally found housing after waiting over five years. Originally designed for short-term stays, shelters were never meant for long-term occupation and few people can endure the long stays before being housed.

Factor in the expenses of extended shelter residence, the costs to city, county, and Caltrans for sweeps and other encounters, and closing MOES resulted in huge financial expenditures of taxpayer dollars with not only little to no return on investment but also more homeless people in the parks, on the streets and down the alleys.

While it’s true that large encampments are now swiftly cleared by Modesto’s “accountability” tactic for busting people with nowhere to go, it’s also true that costs for policing homelessness have risen and so have calls for homeless-related service throughout the region.

Sweep on Seventh Street Modesto 3 March 2025
County workers hauling belongings away, Modesto, March 3, 2025

When MOES was open, a city spokesperson said that,

We’ve seen a direct correlation between allowing for our homeless individuals to go into one location and the calls for service and the quality of life crimes that we would otherwise experience in other parts of the city go down.”

Today, quality of life crimes in “other parts of the city” are sharply up. City officials attribute the rise in calls to added enforcement personnel, which of course means added costs. These added costs of managing homelessness do not include the costs to homeless people themselves, both in loss of material possessions when rousted and in the form of psychological damage from the constant fear and sleep deprivation when people are not permitted to form mutually beneficial communities that provide minimum safety and security.

Service providers, both professionals and volunteers, find their work severely impeded when their homeless clients and beneficiaries are constantly on the move. After San Diego enacted an anti-camping ordinance, Jenni Wilkens, who manages a street health program, began losing track of many of her patients:

Sweeping up after forced move, Modesto, 5 March, 2025
Cleaning up after forced to move, Modesto, 5 March 2025

Prior to the ordinance going into effect, we had very, very tight relationships with the community members we were serving,” Wilkens said. “We always knew where we could find them. Follow-up was much, much easier. They knew where to expect us, and we just knew we were going to be able to find our folks. Since the camping ordinance passed, the abatement sweeps have been much more frequent and much more aggressive. So we have not been able to provide that quality follow-up care that we used to be able to provide, just because everybody is moving. We lose track of our patients.”

Whatever positive effects may have been achieved when Modesto ended its permitted camping program, they’ve been far outweighed by adverse consequences for law enforcement, city residents, homeless people, and service providers.

So when people wonder why California has failed on homelessness, they need only to look at Modesto and Stanislaus County and then consider that their tactics are pretty much the same as most every city and county in the state. Statewide, we’ve been spending more and more money to achieve worse and worse effects. It’s a case of escalating costs and diminishing returns. That’s a formula for failure state and local authorities seem only too happy to keep following.

 

 

Eric Caine
Eric Caine
Eric Caine formerly taught in the Humanities Department at Merced College. He was an original Community Columnist at the Modesto Bee, and wrote for The Bee for over twelve years.
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9 COMMENTS

  1. Agreed. Possible solution: reevaluate effectiveness/efficiency of Section 8. Based on my experience with homelessness in this city: the dollar amount of voucher less than average monthly cost of apartment, also numerous apartment managers openly refuse to accept Section 8 vouchers. For these reasons and more many individuals are stuck at these shelters for literally years.

  2. Please comment on loss of housing in Sonoma county CA as I am a citizen and also without housing situation for 6 years now no HUD anymore or much help as rapid rehousing only pays for a 1st and deposit with tons of legality and red tape no way to sustain housing, .month to month and not many owners willing to accept it . Thank you again.

  3. I live in Sonoma county and I work at the biggest shelter there is in Santa Rosa ca. It’s true there is not a lot of low income rentals available here. They say they’re building low income house but where are they? They build an apartment complex with 160 units and only maybe a few are low income. That’s not enough. They all need to be low income every apartment in the complex. At Sam Jones we can house about 160 residents at one time. And yes a lot of them have been coming back for years. It breaks my heart..We do our best to try and house people but in reality not a lot of them get housed. The stay there 6 months then when it time for their exit date they go back down and get on the waiting list. Plus alot of them do not have jobs. They’re not required to have jobs. We are a low barrier shelter. We deal with a lot of mental health residents. And we are seeing a lot more older people who get SSI but still they don’t have enough income to get housed because there is nothing affordable for them. Seniors people who had once had their own place and their husband or wife pass on and they lose there home and end up on the streets. It’s so sad these people they don’t choose to be homeless trust me. No one wants to be homeless but what do they do. If the government or whoever would really build low income apartments to where they would only have to pay $500 a month rent including utilities. Then they could maybe would have a safe place to live and lay their head down at night and not have to worried about getting robbed or killed. It’s not safe on the streets too much crazy stuff that goes on. It’s not like when I grew up the streets were safe. Now you can’t even let your child play outside without living in fear that something is going to happen to them. Or you just may never see them again..the streets are not safe for no one. It just breaks my heart to know this and to see it. And to talk to these residents who come into shelter they’re no different then us yes they have issues and some mental health. It would blow your mind knowing where they once was and how they became homeless. They just did not wake up one day and say I think I will be homeless. NO these are God’s people to. A lot of them are lost and afraid and have been threw so much. And most of them they don’t even have a emergency contact. That makes me sad.

  4. To know that you will probably end up dying on the streets homeless it’s sad . They need to learn life skills get job training if able to work a lot of them are able some not. Give employers incentives to hire these people giving them a chance to rebuild there lives. Teach them to be responsible again build there self esteem if everyone that lives in this world would just help some how. Besides saying we’re does our tax money go. We pay taxes to help these homeless. But really how much money goes into getting some one a roof over there head. And to make it illegal to be homeless is a bunch of you know what. Arrest them cuz there homeless and they have no where to stay. Yes that fixes the problem doesn’t it. Think about it.

  5. Like cockroaches, if you feed them they will come.
    Make it really uncomfortable and they will either leave or find their own solution.
    The only TAXPAYERS MONEY spent should be on strict law enforcement.

    • Our well-meaning elected officials and their staff that second the anti camping ordinance and constant sweeps wash their hands of the problems with a pat on each other’s backs after the vote and go home to a nice warm meal and clean sheets telling anyone within hearing what a great job they are doing.
      MOES wasn’t perfect or pretty, but it was one helll of a sight better than what’s going on now.
      Resurrect the tent city with portable showers and toilets and the service providers to go to that one location.
      I’m sure our tax dollars will go further and our local constabularies would be much appreciative to be able to spend their time doing more constructive duties.
      You would think that someone in the higher echelons of city and county government could get this through their thick skulls. A group of them did once. Love to see them try it again.
      Many of us knew that when they destroyed MOES some years back it would lead down this well travelled pot hole filled road.
      Catch a clue Board of Supervisors and city council members.

  6. Modesto should adopt communities for the homeless that are individual tiny homes that restore hope to the homeless and get them off the streets, where they feel safe behind their own locked door, to be protected from the elements and other things or people, where they can look for work and leave their belongings locked in their tiny home. Like Boxable in San Diego, or San Francisco, or in Oregon.

  7. Majority of the homeless don’t want to live in a government housing because they want their freedom to do whatever they want. It’s a waste of taxpayer money to spend on them. No homeless project has been successful except for a short term basis.

    • I for one am so VERRY thankful to have a Homeless expert here🙄. Having have been homeless myself at different times in my life I’ve seen the good and bad from both ends. Let me get the first point. How dare anyone want to have any sort of freedom especially homeless people. How dare they want to do what they want. How dare they expect to eat sleep or feel safe! If you haven’t noticed that was sarcasm then I don’t have enough crayons to feed you to get the point across. First off are you aware that over 30% of homeless are military vets? And of that 30% half either suffer some trauma from their service? How dare they expect any freedom or respect? Secondly it’s people like you who look at a person and determine their value and worth in this world by a snap judgement how would you like to have the same done to you? Or how about this: I’m sure you’ve never gone 2-4 days without eating, barely being able to clean yourself, and having to wear the same clothes for a month. How about you sleep 2-4 hours a day mainly during the day because it’s too cold or dangerous to sleep at night. How do you look for work or housing while pretentious idiots like yourself judge and insult the person. If you can’t imagine that situation imagine it being your mother your son your daughter. I bet you change your smart ass tone and work to a solution instead of writing the unimaginative drivel you heard from someone on talk radio, because you’re too lazy to form your own opinion. I’m done with this I doubt you’ll read it or even give it a second thought but hopefully someone will offer a hand up to someone instead of a hand out or worse. I’m done

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