Doctor Richard Anderson is a retired Professor of Microbiology.
When contemplating the effects of Covid-19, we would do well to meditate on California’s endemic Yellow-billed Magpies as a model of how nature works her relentless process of evolving life forms. About 180,000 of these beautiful birds previously mobbed various favorite sites in Modesto and throughout their limited California range. More than half died after West Nile Virus reached California in 2004.
Those virus-resistant survivors have now built back up to a population estimated between 90,000 and 110,000 individuals.
We humans are likewise the descendants of ancestors beset for millennia by bacterial, fungal, parasitic and viral epidemics. Smallpox, tuberculosis, polio, measles, chickenpox, influenza, and more have killed unknown billions—just consider the horrific Black Plague, which killed 50 million people in the 14th century. This is part of natural selection—epidemics without medicine.
When a new pathogen enters a susceptible human population, it may be horrifically lethal, as evidenced by the population collapse of New World Native Americans after contact with Columbus and other invaders.
Also, in the 1980s, without treatment, nearly all AIDS patients died within 2 years of diagnosis. Yet there are resistant humans. Magic Johnson has lived 29 years after announcing he was infected with HIV. Many long-term survivors have two mutant receptor genes needed by HIV to infect cells, called the CCR-5 coreceptor.
Creating “herd immunity” to pathogens is an “expensive” process—the cost is often life itself. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is inflicting this winnowing process on us right now. A new pathogen evolves; the more susceptible hosts become sick and die; individuals with the best immune responses and other responses survive to reproduce their genes. Having the right HLA genes (Human Leukocyte Antigens) can be the decisive advantage to survival. These genes are being investigated vigorously regarding our Coronavirus pandemic.
The human COVID-19 death rate is estimated as 1% to 7%, depending on country and data analysis. We are desperately enforcing stay at home rules to give us time to develop antivirals and, ultimately, a vaccine. Without them, nature takes its toll.
Some demonstrators are now demanding an “early reopening” of the economy. Ammon Bundy has blurted out “I want the virus now!” so he can deal with it while he is young and strong. Some declare that unemployment kills people too. Others advocate, “Faith not Fear.”
Still others degrade the importance of the coronavirus, claiming that every year influenza kills 3,000 to 50,000 of us anyway, and we don’t shut down the economy for that. But as of 4/24/20, more than 50,000 US residents have died from the coronavirus over a few short months. Should we reopen now?
We all should remember the message of the magpie. Without effective drugs and vaccines, nature is a harsh but always reliable teacher. If only 1% of COVID-19 infected people die, up to 3,300,000 US deaths can be expected if all of us are exposed to the virus. We must delay exposure as much as possible until effective anti-viral drugs and/or a vaccine are available.
Sources and further reading:
Early Impact of West Nile Virus on the Yellow-Billed Magpie (Pica Nuttalli)Scott P. Crosbie, Walter D. Koenig, William K. Reisen, Vicki L. Kramer, Lauren Marcus, Ryan Carney, Edward Pandolfino, Ginger M. Bolen, Lizette R. Crosbie, Douglas A. Bell.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2892874/
The Auk, Volume 125, Issue 3, 1 July 2008, Pages 542–550, https://doi.org/10.1525/auk.2008.07040
Pica populations: https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22705874/131399674
Death rate: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
Bundy: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/ammon-bundy-i-want-the-virus-now.html
Flu deaths: https://www.webmd.com/asthma/qa/how-many-people-die-from-the-flu
120 papers on Google Scholar for “HLA Antigens + SARS CoV-2” since 2016
Local cases & deaths http://www.schsa.org/PublicHealth/pages/corona-virus/
Thank you for clearly illustrating our current reality, good article. I love seeing our Magpies coming back.
An excellent exposition was written by Dr. Anderson.
The philosophical question is how much effort should be made to suppress natural selection among humans. The medical profession operates under the doctrine of prolonging and saving all lives. The average human says to save the lives of himself and those he cares about. The businessperson says that the economy and profit is worth more than lives; humans are expendable because we are so many.
Nature will inevitably decide. Neanderthals went into extinction, every native of Baja California was extinct by 1840, and tens of thousands of species have gone extinct as humans took over the earth.
Ammon Bundy wants the virus now. Perhaps he will be selected out. If not, he will contribute to herd immunity. Buy him a ticket to New York City.
Man’s overpopulation of the earth makes stopping a pandemic increasingly difficult. At some point, nature will have its way. Is the current virus man’s lost cause? Reopening the economy early will definitely help nature have its way.
Thank you for this interesting and relevant article.
We have been tracking Covid 19 cases in CA since February 26, when the first death was counted. Here are the death statistics for flu and Covid 19 in California.
1,618
+0 so far today
+87 yesterday
Total deaths from the entire 2018-2019 flu season:
615
So, in TWO MONTHS, Covid 19 has killed more than TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE as the flu killed IN ONE YEAR.
I should also point out that while people claim that Covid 19 has only killed as many people as cars do every year, it has done that in a period of months. It is a good thing that we are mitigating the spread of this infection. Probably, everyone will get it over time, but not in such a way as to continue to take the lives of first responders and various medical personnel, or overwhelm our inadequate medical infrastructure, which is resulting in UNNECESSARY DEATHS. We still do not know what the long term effects of catching this infection are. They are discovering over time that your heart may be permanently damaged, you can get clotting disorders resulting in loss of limb, life or strokes, your kidneys may become involved. People should avoid it if only for this reason: We don’t know if getting it confers immunity or if it will result in a future of continual chronic illness.
Here is where I got my stats:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/Immunization/Annual2018-19.pdf
Excellent, Richard!!
Richard,
I appreciate your review of the situation.
I was not aware of the evolutionary history of the Yellow Billed Magpie. We can only hope or for some pray, that a vaccine/treatment will be found soon so we are not only depending on herd immunity.