As of December 3, early morning, Adam Gray led incumbent Congressman John Duarte by 131 votes out of a total 210,509 votes cast. By late evening the same day, the Associated Press had called the race for Gray and Duarte had conceded. There will almost certainly be a recount.
The close vote illustrates a nationwide political identity crisis, as America tries to decide who it is and where it’s going. Under the leadership of Donald Trump, the Republican Party has regressed to the 1930s, when tariffs and isolationism were central planks of the party platform under incumbent candidate Herbert Hoover.
Hoover went down to a resounding defeat from Franklin Delano Roosevelt, as voters blamed him for a deteriorating economy that led to the Great Depression. Today, such decisive victories are things of the past as both Trump and Joe Biden proved to be unpopular presidents whose struggles to govern during and after a global pandemic were exacerbated by war, inflation, economic inequality and the increasingly punishing effects of climate change.
Ironically, though Hoover was blamed for the economic woes of the Great Depression, Roosevelt was unable to revive the American economy despite his popularity. World events and the material pressures of the times are often greater movers of history than presidents.
Even if Adam Gray’s victory survives a recount, his win won’t be enough to change the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Gray will also be facing the prospect of another tight race in two years, as Duarte is expected to run again and has better prospects of winning in a year without a presidential contest to bring out Democrat-leaning voters.
Though Gray’s victory likely won’t bring about significant change in a congress now tilted toward the new right, it does signal a possible way forward for Valley voters. If this election has shown anything certain, it has shown that Valley citizens have joined the nation’s restless voters in a deep yearning for change.
The recent transformation of Republican policies on everything from America’s role as an international peace keeper and defender of democracy to exterminators of national institutions has shattered our traditional party systems, as Biden/Harris Democrats uncharacteristically have found themselves in the role of defenders of the status quo. Both parties will be reconstructed as they form new coalitions of citizens who demand better representation from politicians too long in service to purveyors of wealth and power instead of working and middle class Americans.
Adam Gray’s singular virtue as a California State Assembly member was his independence and willingness to fight for his constituents whether his party liked it or not. If he prevails after the almost certain recount of votes in California Congressional District 13, that dedication to working and middle class Valley citizens will keep him in office, as both our political parties must reorient themselves away from service to money and power and toward the middle and working classes that made America great during the glory years of the country’s post-war boom.
Gray will also have to work hard to restore confidence in our institutions of science, learning and law, our national media, including new media, and our shared truths, however inconvenient. Valley citizens can help him in this endeavor by valuing truth over disinformation and by exercising their Constitutional right to choose government by and for the people.
The contest between Adam Gray and John Duarte matters because voting matters. The close race shows the importance of every vote, and the looming election of 2026 reminds us of the need to redefine our political priorities so that equal justice and equal opportunity once again become the American way forward.
Duarte isn’t asking for a recount and he conceded.
Glad our House of Representatives now has one more dissenter to the worst of Trump’s intended policies!😊🇺🇸
This margin of victory is so close that Gray can expect all the GOP resources to be used targeting him. And, by resources, I mean money that was diverted to Trump campaign and legal fees can now be reallocated to regional efforts. And billionaires with their media empires will be deployed with greater intensity into individual Congressional districts and Senate races.
Gray will have to deliver meaningfully to the district so he can bolster the case for re-election, but it is unlikely Speaker Mike Johnson permits that. I am sure Dem Leadership will give Adam space to chart his own survival course but that could undermine Him with portions of his own base.
CD13 is a political puzzle and any incumbent is on thin ice despite Dems’ +10 registration advantage. Voter turnout is critical in an off year. The question is, what will drive voters to vote in numbers in 2026? Specifically, what will motivate Democrats to vote and swing voters to swing, because Republicans have proven they will reliably turn out.