• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

The Valley Citizen

Nature, Environment, History & Politics

The Valley Citizen

  • Arts
  • Education
  • Environment
  • History
  • Nature
  • Politics
  • Wit
  • About
  • RSS Icon

CA-10 Democrats Dodge Howze-it-zer

June 13, 2018 By Eric Caine 1 Comment

Sue Zwhalen, Ted Howze (center), and Mike Barkley

With all but a few votes now counted, it appears the turnout for Democratic candidates in California Congressional District 10 (CA-10) was up over fifty percent from 2014, the last off-year election. In the 2014 primary, Democrats Michael Eggman and Mike Barkley totaled 30,809, with Eggman logging 19,804 votes.

This year, with six Democratic candidates’ names on the ballot, total Democratic votes were 49,611—but even with the dramatic increase in turnout, Democrats narrowly escaped a shutout for the General Election in November.

Republican Ted Howze handily beat every Democratic candidate except Josh Harder, and pulled in 15,127 votes. That’s almost 5,000 votes more than Michael Eggman, a two-time Democratic candidate who jumped into the race just before the filing deadline and was heavily favored to finish second to incumbent Republican Jeff Denham.

Himself a late entry, Howze clearly saw an opportunity to take advantage of California’s “jungle primary” rule, which sends the first and second place finishers of the primary into the General Election, regardless of party. Howze’s shrewd analysis of Denham’s need to curry Latino votes by pretending to be sympathetic with Dreamers and working immigrants enabled him to run to Denham’s right on immigration by favoring the more Draconian policies of Donald Trump.

Using mostly his own money and taking advantage of name recognition gained from his term as a Turlock City Councilmember, Howze targeted ultra-conservative voters and emphasized Denham’s absence from the district, as well as his hypocritical stance on immigration. Had it not been for Josh Harder’s unprecedented district-wide blitz, he might have snuck into the General Election.

But no one, Democrat or Republican, could have anticipated Harder’s relentless quest for votes. From meeting rooms in Denny’s Restaurants to residential back yards, churches, and coffee houses, Harder dug for votes wherever he could find them.

Josh Harder at Modesto town hall

His daily itinerary might feature stops in cities from Turlock to Tracy, and his volunteers also kept up a torrid pace. With three days to go until the June 5 election, Harder was still campaigning with a sense of desperation.

“Even if we had a poll that said we were up twenty percent,” he said, “I’d still be campaigning as hard as I could.”

By Election Day, Harder was cautiously optimistic. “I think we might sweep Newman,” he said, showing an attention to detail that typified his campaign from its beginning in late summer of 2017. With a population of just over 11,000 residents, Newman is often overlooked in congressional races, but Harder had volunteers knocking on doors everywhere and monitored their reports closely.

Even so, Harder’s 17,691 total only beat Howze by 2,564 votes. If there’s good news for Democrats, it’s that Jeff Denham finished with 38,962 votes, far short of his 2014 total of 44,237 votes. But Denham’s and Howze’s combined total of a little over 54,000 still beat the combined Democratic total by almost 5,000 votes.  A pessimist might argue that the Republican total puts CA-10 out of reach of any Democrat, but a closer analysis suggests 2018 could be the year of change.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Stanislaus County by almost two full percentage points, even while Michael Eggman was losing the congressional race by over four points. While CA-10 also includes parts of Tracy and Manteca, those cities generally are more likely to vote Democratic than Stanislaus County as a whole.

The takeaway? On June 8, even before the final tallies were in, the Cook Political Report rated CA-10 a tossup. Ted Howze may have come within a couple of thousands votes of blasting Democratic chances altogether, but most experts think Democrats still have at least an even chance in November.

The key will lie in bringing the various elements of the local party together and getting the vote out for Josh Harder. If that happens, Democrats’ narrow escape from a Ted Howze bombshell will fade into dim history amid the cheers of a victorious celebration.

 

Filed Under: Featured, Politics Tagged With: Jeff Denham, Jeff Denham CA-10, Josh Harder for congress

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Pearl Alice Marsh says

    June 14, 2018 at 6:53 am

    Thank you for this assessment of the primary. I’ve gotten hopeful we will flip the district.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Note: Some comments may be held for moderation.

Primary Sidebar

Off The Wire

Ten Ways Billionaires Avoid Taxes On An Epic Scale
Ten Ways Billionaires Avoid Taxes On An Epic Scale
This article first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative…
talkingpointsmemo.com
A South Texan?s Wild, Life-affirming Quest to Break a National Birding Record
A South Texan’s Wild, Life-affirming Quest to Break a National Birding Record
When she began her year-long bird-spotting adventure, Tiffany Kersten was lost and lonely. She ended up achieving a major milestone and finding her way.
www.texasmonthly.com
Ron Johnson tried to hand fake elector info to Mike Pence on Jan. 6, panel reveals
Ron Johnson tried to hand fake elector info to Mike Pence on Jan. 6, panel reveals
A top aide said the Wisconsin Republican senator wanted to give Pence the list of pro-Trump electors as he prepared to certify the 2020 election.
www.politico.com
Raffensperger says he wishes Fox News carried every Jan. 6 hearing
Raffensperger says he wishes Fox News carried every Jan. 6 hearing
“I think it would have helped our party heal, given [people] more facts.”
www.axios.com
'Not safe anymore': Portland confronts the limits of its support for homeless services
‘Not safe anymore’: Portland confronts the limits of its support for homeless services
Homeless encampments now spill well beyond Portland’s downtown core, dividing a city that has invested liberally in support services.
www.latimes.com
Republicans Will Do It Again
Republicans Will Do It Again
They have not been chastened by the revelations of the January 6 committee.
nymag.com
Birdman
Birdman
Bird Brother: A Falconer’s Journey and the Healing Power of Wildlife
www.earthisland.org
The Potato Roll Empire Bankrolling Christian Nationalist Doug Mastriano
The Potato Roll Empire Bankrolling Christian Nationalist Doug Mastriano
The Martins were bit players in politics, until they put Doug Mastriano one step away from becoming Pennsylvania’s next governor.
nymag.com
Roger Stone and Michael Flynn under fire over rallies ‘distorting Christianity’
Roger Stone and Michael Flynn under fire over rallies ‘distorting Christianity’
Prominent Christian leaders accuse Trump allies of spreading misinformation about election and Covid, while distorting Christian teachings at ReAwaken America events
www.theguardian.com
Major water cutbacks loom as shrinking Colorado River nears 'moment of reckoning'
Major water cutbacks loom as shrinking Colorado River nears ‘moment of reckoning’
As the Colorado River water shortage worsens, major cutbacks are needed to reduce most perilous risks, a federal official tells senators.
www.latimes.com
Trump Scammed Supporters Out of $250 Million for Nonexistent Fraud Fund
Trump Scammed Supporters Out of $250 Million for Nonexistent Fraud Fund
Supporters who thought they were donating to “election integrity” instead saw some of their money funneled to Trump hotels
www.rollingstone.com
Police Arrested 31 White Supremacists Crammed Into a U-Haul With a Detailed Riot Plan
Police Arrested 31 White Supremacists Crammed Into a U-Haul With a Detailed Riot Plan
Members of the Patriot Front were allegedly planning to disrupt a pride parade in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho.
www.vice.com
Dishonor, Trump’s and His Party’s, Is the Real January 6th Takeaway
Dishonor, Trump’s and His Party’s, Is the Real January 6th Takeaway
Liz Cheney, defying the G.O.P., offered a searing indictment of the former President at Thursday’s hearing.
www.newyorker.com

Find us on Facebook

The Valley Citizen
PO Box 156
Downtown Bear Postal
1509 K Street
Modesto, CA 95354

Email us at:
thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Footer

The Valley Citizen
PO Box 156
Downtown Bear Postal
1509 K Street
Modesto, CA 95354

Email us at:
thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Subscribe for Free

* indicates required

Search

• Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2022 The Valley Citizen

Dedicated to the memory of John Michael Flint. Contact us at thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Editor and publisher: Eric Caine

Website customization and maintenance by Susan Henley Design