In retrospect, Jerry McNerney’s upset win over Richard Pombo in 2006 may have been an omen. A seven-term congressman with a high national profile and leadership credentials in the House of Representatives, Pombo’s loss to the low-key but high-integrity McNerney didn’t produce the Blue Wave Valley Democrats had hoped for, but it did show an increasing voter concern for rising corruption in government.
Pombo had been tainted by a close association with Jack Abramoff, from whom he’d accepted over $500,000 in political contributions. Pombo also had a horrible record on the environment, and McNerney’s expertise in wind-energy gave his campaign a luster that attracted support from a host of environmental groups.
Nonetheless, as time went on, McNerney’s 9th District win began looking more and more like an anomaly. In the nearby 10th District, Republican Jeff Denham had grabbed what looked like permanent occupancy, even after strong challenges from Democrat Michael Eggman.
And when Democrats did win in the Valley, they were invariably “Blue Dog” Democrats, members of a self-described “centrist” coalition that many Valley Democrats ridiculed as Republican lite. So it was that Blue Dogs Gary Condit and Dennis Cardoza never generated much excitement among young progressives and Latinos, mostly because of their willingness to vote with Republicans.
But in 2018, Latinos and young progressives became part of a Blue Wave in the Valley as they helped propel both Josh Harder and TJ Cox to upset victories over highly favored incumbent Republicans in the 10th and 21st Congressional Districts. Both Harder and Cox ran campaigns featuring strong Democratic platforms that focused on health care, jobs, education, and women’s rights.
Harder’s and Cox’s victories may have encouraged Democrats throughout the Valley to hope for a political realignment featuring truly Democratic values. One sign of such a possible shift in the political landscape is the emerging threat to Blue Dog Democrat Jim Costa. Now the incumbent for California Congressional District 16, Costa is suddenly facing two serious Democratic challengers in the upcoming primary, Kim Williams and Esmeralda Soria.
Well known in Fresno and nearby, Soria is a Fresno City Councilmember who has already pledged to refuse corporate PAC money, a strategy also favored by Harder and Cox.
Though she’s never held elective office, Kim Williams could also make a strong showing against Costa. Like Soria, she’s a true Democrat who leans progressive. A single mother campaigning on reducing income inequality and poverty, Williams went from humble rural origins in Georgia to jobs as a tenured college professor and U.S. diplomat.
In the past, few political insiders of any leaning would have thought it conceivable that an eight-term Congressman like Jim Costa could be seriously threatened by members from his own party. But 2018 showed that strong Democratic candidates can generate far more excitement that anyone imagined, and that excitement translates to the kind of voter turnout Democrats need to win.
While it’s too early to say with any certainty that 2020 will provide a national referendum on corruption in government, many of those who were hoping to “drain the swamp” in 2016 have to be disappointed by the current administration. And if Valley Democrats can maintain momentum from 2018, 2020 could feature the biggest Blue Wave ever.
Your political standing is pedestrian since you, like many others, focus on the time-worn battle of Democrat vs. Republican. Both terms have been irrelevant for a generation and no longer have the meaning they once had. Both swamp-dwelling genres in Wash DC embrace their political label because doing so accommodates their life-time tenure in office…societies mouth breathers reelect them to office believing their views are well represented. History, social media, and transparency show that our democratic republic festers with rot and corruption. People know this, and the pendulum is reversing itself.
Both Jerry McNerney and Josh Harder we similar in their lack of local support and overwhelming activism imported into our district from the Bay Area.
Yes, Congressman McNerney’s “local support” was so weak, he only won by over 26,000 votes. Congressman Harder defeated a long-term and highly-favored incumbent by 9,900 votes.
This is good article. As an observation I AM A TRANSPLANTED bAY AREA PERSON AND HAVE LIVED IN THE POVERTY VALLEY FOR 45 years.
Many people that live in 10th congressional district work in the Bay Area. I get fed up when people always saying Josh Harder got elected with imported Bay area people and how much does where one work matter. They have to work in the bay for living wage. Poverty Valley only has low paying jobs.
Well, the tide in teh Blue side of the aisle is heavily leaning towards socialism. When these policies are adopted, those of us who do not support this will have moved far away- leaving the rest of you to face the 75% tax rates, low services, highly paid politicians and 1 million homeless and growing…..and the USA will be closing in on bankruptcy. For the many fools who are Democrats- I challenge you to look at a video on utube called “Pelosi, Brown, Newsome, Getty” these 4 families have been running California for 8 decades- and their riches are growing more and more and more…..they will promise you all kinds of stuff – none of it delivered, all the while raking in billions into their coffers….
Hey Eric,
Nice read. I was reading the manifesto slapped online right before the El Paso shooter walked into Walmart and started mowing down Hispanics. I figured it would be a glimpse into a twisted mind, and I wasn’t let down. He did spout some nutty, ill-conceived junk.
But he also had some very interesting complaints:
– corporations trashing the environment
– high cost of higher education
– limited access to decent jobs
– automation replacing human workers
I was a little stunned by these fairly legitimate concerns, especially that he blamed both Dems and Repubs for all this. He saw them as equally complicit. Reading the comments above — 75% taxes / bankrupt country / fools = democrats — made me think of him. Some of your readers may be drafting their own manifestos.
Thanks again, Keep up the good work.
JT: Always good to hear from you, especially since you actually read stuff. I tend to agree with people who argue both parties are owned (Bernie’s been saying it for years) but have not seen much hope as the nation’s consciousness has been altered rightward and downward at an increasing pace since the eighties, most especially since the rise of social media. Speaking of reading, I can’t recommend Arax’s “The Dreamt Land” enough; chapters would be good student reads. Same goes for Sapolsky’s “Behave,” though that is much tougher sledding. Most humanities people would probably be happier to start at Chapter 9, where the going starts to get easier. Come to think of it, maybe most would prefer the You Tube lecture. Brilliant man. Where have you been JT? We missed you.