The People’s Republic of China currently has over 100 million citizens in lockdown. A new wave of Covid-19, the Corona Virus, has emerged in Northeast China. The first wave of the virus hit Stanislaus County about four months after it was first reported in Wuhan China. What can we now expect?
Now that the first wave of the Corona Virus has swept across the world, will another wave come and what will it look like? Throughout history, pandemics of various intensities have swept the world.
The June 1/June 8 double edition of Time Magazine has a comprehensive history of current and past pandemics. The Smithsonian Channel recently aired a program highlighting the devastation by the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919. The most deaths occurred in the fall, during the second wave.
If the current pandemic behaves like the Spanish Flu, Stanislaus County may expect a tsunami of virus to wash over anyone who does not take appropriate safety measures. We have heard repeatedly about the efficacy of sheltering in place, face masks and hand washing.
President Trump announced this past week that he absolutely will not shut down the country when the next wave hits. Not only will he not fully prepare the country for the next wave of the pandemic, but he plans to force every job holder to keep working regardless of risk to life.
Citizens who prefer to be safe will be punished for sheltering in place. Republicans in Congress are pushing a new law that holds employers harmless should employees be forced to work under unsafe conditions.
Should the President follow through on his stated policy, the number or citizens who will be killed by the virus will be devastating. In 1918, over 50 million were killed worldwide by the Spanish Flu because politicians hid the epidemic during wartime; healthcare workers had little knowledge of and resources to contain the flu.
Is Stanislaus County Better Off Than In 1918?
The Stanislaus County Public Health Department does not have the ability to adequately test or treat the county’s population. The Republican controlled County Board of Supervisors has mostly left funding of testing to the State of California. The Board previously closed the County-run hospital, so all treatment is provided by an overwhelmed private sector that currently has supply shortages.
The editorial board of the Modesto Bee has complained on more than one occasion about its inability to obtain data on County infection rates. Lack of testing remains one problem and lack of information coming from the County Health Department was the other problem. The May 23 edition of the Bee highlighted lack of available testing in West and South Modesto, current virus hot spots.
A reasonable person may assume that Stanislaus County is not better prepared than in 1918. Medical services are limited throughout the county. Present efforts to deal with the virus barely cover the current wave, which persists because essential workers are not adequately protected by their employers.
If the next wave of the pandemic is anywhere the size of the second wave in 1918, our community will be inundated because our political leadership pursues a policy of doing the minimum, not preparing adequately for emergencies. Public health is not considered a priority — road construction is.
When Will The Next Wave Hit?
The first wave of the Corona Virus has not yet ended. Stanislaus County still has citizens who are ill with the virus. The County has no idea how many citizens are currently infected because of continuous inadequate testing capacity.
In the case of the Spanish Flu, citizens had the virus in every month of 1918. The number of infected persons bottomed in July and August and then took off like a rocket in September, peaking in October 1918. The virus persisted until spring 1919, when it dissipated like a passing storm.
The Covid-19 virus has persistently spread throughout a world population of eight billion. Enough people are living and transmitting the virus so that the wave may never diminish.
In Stanislaus County, with people returning to work, gathering in large numbers, and relaxing by not wearing masks or washing hands properly, the virus will probably persist throughout the summer. Locally, a big flare up will occur in the fall if normal indoor activities resume or visitors bring another strain of the virus to us.
Some say that the virus will one day magically disappear. Watch for the prognosticators on Fox News. The virus could dissolve away and cease to exist. But if you want to win some money, bet that the virus will be coming back, worse in the second wave.
Development of a vaccine is offered as a hope. Before that happens, many more citizens will be gone.
A reasonable person would not make such statements to cause panic without the facts. The “Non-Partisan Board of Supervisors” months ago purchased 110 beds and equipment, setting up the old County Hospital for overflow if capacity at the private hospitals was exceeded. It never was, the hospitals are at approx. 42% of capacity and the old County Hospital beds remain empty but ready if needed. The are multiple testing sights in all corners of the County, established by the County, including countless private testing sights. The County has and continues to provide the private sector with personal protective equipment.
Bruce please call me anytime, you have my number, to discuss the facts to help you with your stories , take care
I agree with Mr. Withrow’s comment that I did not know all of the facts for my article. Here are some facts I did not know?
I live in West Modesto. Where do I get tested if I need to?
How many citizens have been tested? How many citizens need or want to be tested but cannot do so?
If the County was prepared for the pandemic, why did nurses protest at Kaiser about inadequate medical supplies? Why didn’t the County Health Department help the Turlock Nursing Home protect its residents through training or guidance? Could it be that the Health Department has inadequate resources?
I have been accused of trying to create panic. Then why was the entire country locked down for the first wave? The CDC’s top experts are predicting that the next wave coming this fall will be worse than the first wave. Is it better to be underprepared or over prepared? Rather than have a private citizen like me write about what the County is doing to prepare, shouldn’t the County make an effort to inform the public? Isn’t the pandemic dangerous enough to inform the citizenry?
Although the Board of Supervisors is a non-partisan office, the candidates make sure that the voters know what political party they belong to. When the Board recently followed Donald Trump’s lead and decided to cease enforcement of the quarantine before the Governor ok’d it, their partisan Republican stripes were as clear as day.
At his invitation, I look forward to contacting Supervisor’s Withrow’s office for my next article.
I agree. The American public has the intelligence to manage risks. There are many fatal diseases for which we have no cure or vaccine. We don’t lock down our country for those.
This is fake news!!! “Force people to work….and being punished for wanting to be safe and shelter in place”. Come on now. Very biased journalism.
“Fake news” is a term associated with deliberate distribution of propaganda. The term became a popular tool of totalitarian governments in the 1930s to discredit reports critical of their administrations. We’re happy to correct factual errors when they’re pointed out. Claims of “fake news” will generally be deleted as the tactics of people who support totalitarianism.
I wish both the County and the City would use the public Media available in Modesto and our County for better informing the public about important issues like Bruce Frohman has pointed out.
“What media? You mean the Bee?”
not just!- I mean these kinds of Media:
1. TV channels operated out of SCOE (Stanislaus County Office of Education) have for years had three little-used TV channels operated through the SCOE basement that are available to use: P, E, and G.
P- for Public Access which used to be Comcast 27 but is now MYTV-26. Yes, it is still on.
E- for Educational. That is used a little by SCOE itself and could be greatly expanded to meet
important communications needs like details of COVID advice, testing, etc.
G- for Government. This is used to broadcast the Supervisor and County Council meetings.
Otherwise, they are dead. What a wasted resource!
2. Radio stations: KCBP 95.5 FM Provides a free radio voice. They are seeking local, important news.
105.5 FM “The River”- lots of listeners
Print/online:
3. The Stanislaus Connections, StanislausConnections.org
4. Informative blogs like The Valley Citizen.com (This fine Blog)
5. Of course the Bee and numerous other local newspapers publish in our County.
Why don’t we see the locations of testing sites, numbers infected, notices, etc updated frequently in these Media?
Well, we do only when those news sources get interviewers calling and questioning the SCHSA, County, City. Let’s change that, Supervisors and Council. The County and City could actively approach any of the above, instead of passively waiting to be asked.
Gee. I just realized those are called “Press Releases”! Not a novel idea after all.