• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

The Valley Citizen

Nature, Environment, History & Politics

The Valley Citizen

  • Arts
  • Education
  • Environment
  • History
  • Nature
  • Politics
  • Wit
  • About
  • RSS Icon

When Five Democrats Equal Two Republicans

April 10, 2018 By Eric Caine Leave a Comment

Are you serious?

News that Ted Howze has already amassed $256,946 for his campaign in California’s Congressional District 10 (CA-10) rocked Democratic insiders like a rare San Joaquin Valley earthquake. Howze’s late entry was initially treated as frivolous, but now the prospect of a two Republican runoff has many Democrats increasingly fretful.

It’s a strong message that Democratic voters need to take their eyes off the primary and look hard at the general election. Not only is there an increasing possibility of a two Republican runoff in November, there’s also a chance for a weak Democratic finalist.

How could such a thing occur? In a five (Democrat) candidate race, it could happen when voters divide their ballots between two strong candidates and a third squeaks in ahead of them, with the two weakest candidates picking up the crumbs.

Let’s do the math: In 2014, the last off-year election in CA-10, 75,046 total votes were cast in the primary. Republican Jeff Denham received 44,237 of those votes (58.9%). The remaining 30,809 votes were split between Democrats Michael Eggman and Mike Barkley, with Eggman picking up 19,804 votes to place second and Barkley finishing with 11,005.

Just for the sake of round numbers and because of this election’s high voter interest, let’s say 100,000 votes are cast in CA-10 in the primary ending on June 5. Because there are now two Republicans, let’s say Jeff Denham’s percentage drops from almost sixty percent to forty-two percent (42,000 votes) with Ted Howze picking up another 15,000 votes (Republicans probably won’t garner as high a percentage this year as in 2014).

Now we’re left with 43,000 remaining votes and a 5-way split! Unless one Democrat pulls strongly away from the pack, Howze takes second place and Democrats get shut out of the general election altogether when five Democrats add up to two Republicans.

The other nightmare scenario for Democrats happens if two strong candidates divide votes. Say frontrunners Michael Eggman and Josh Harder split 21,000 votes between them, no matter the percentage, and Mike Barkley, Sue Zwhalen, or Virginia Madueno pulls in 16,000 votes. In that case, Democrats field a candidate in the general election who is likely not their voters’ first choice to beat Jeff Denham.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the two-Republican scenario is far more likely than the Democrat squeaker. At this point, though most observers agree that Michael Eggman and Josh Harder are vying for the lead, no Democrat has pulled away from the pack. Instead, several are obviously looking at the primary in exactly the way Ted Howze is—in terms of how few votes it will take to place second.

Sue Zwhalen, for example, pulled in 18,004 votes in her 2013 race for a spot on the Modesto City Schools Board of Education. Given her solid Modesto base, it’s very probable she looked at Michael Eggman’s 2014 vote totals and realized she had an excellent chance to pull in even more votes than Eggman did should she mount a strong CA-10 campaign.

Of course, Zwahlen, like Harder, Barkley, and Madueno, entered the race after Eggman’s announcement in 2017 that he wasn’t running. His reversal and late entry complicated things for everyone, but very likely encouraged Ted Howze to think he could cut a bigger piece of the ballot pie than any Democrat.

While Howze has virtually no chance of beating Jeff Denham in the general election, at this point he’s almost certainly focused on what he believes are good odds of grabbing a big enough slice of the vote to finish second in the primary. It’s the same kind of reasoning that pushed several other candidates into the race.

Most observers, Democrats and Republicans included, feel Howze has virtually no chance to place high in the June Primary Election. But Howze himself is very likely thinking that no one expected Donald Trump to be President of the United States either, but here he is. And Howze also knows that a second place finish might require far fewer votes than most people have reckoned on.

Trump’s victory was above all a sign that our two major political parties are in disarray, both nationally and locally. It’s highly unlikely what little Democratic Party leadership there is in CA-10 will help untangle the knots in the current five candidate primary. Instead, CA-10 voters themselves will have to come together soon and settle on the one or two candidates they believe most likely to beat Jeff Denham in November. Failure to do so could result in the horror of a toxic red tide instead of their much-anticipated blue wave.

 

 

 

 

Filed Under: Featured, Politics Tagged With: Jeff Denham CA-10, Josh Harder for congress, Michael Eggman for Congress, Sue Zwahlen for congress, Virginia Madueno for Congress

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Note: Some comments may be held for moderation.

Primary Sidebar

Off The Wire

Could a homegrown coronavirus strain be partly to blame for California's surge?
Could a homegrown coronavirus strain be partly to blame for California’s surge?
California scientists have discovered a new coronavirus strain that appears to be propagating faster than any other variant in the Golden State.
www.latimes.com
The Worst President in History
The Worst President in History
Three particular failures secure Trump’s status as the worst chief executive ever to hold the office.
www.theatlantic.com
Trump forces seek primary revenge on GOP impeachment backers
Trump forces seek primary revenge on GOP impeachment backers
Candidates, donors and local party officials are already organizing against the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump.
www.politico.com
McCarthy Falsely Denies Voting To Overturn Election Results
McCarthy Falsely Denies Voting To Overturn Election Results
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on Thursday denied that he, in fact, voted to overturn the election results as…
talkingpointsmemo.com
Audubon Files Lawsuit to Protect Migratory Bird Treaty Act
Audubon Files Lawsuit to Protect Migratory Bird Treaty Act
A coalition of conservation groups is going to court to overturn Trump Administration’s weakening of the landmark bird protection law.
www.audubon.org
Californians scramble for shots amid slow vaccine rollout | CalMatters
Californians scramble for shots amid slow vaccine rollout | CalMatters
Gov. Newsom said the feds failed to deliver promised vaccine supplies, but he expects Californians with their first shots to be able to secure their second.
calmatters.org
David Brooks column: Trump ignites a war within the church
David Brooks column: Trump ignites a war within the church
“Over the last 72 hours, I have received multiple death threats and thousands upon thousands of emails from Christians saying the nastiest and most vulgar things I have ever heard toward my family and ministry. I have been labeled a coward, sellout, a traitor to the Holy Spirit, and cussed out at least 500 times.”
www.courant.com
Here are the companies suspending political contributions following the Capitol riots
Here are the companies suspending political contributions following the Capitol riots
thehill.com
How the Capitol Riot Thrust Big American Companies Deeper Into Politics
How the Capitol Riot Thrust Big American Companies Deeper Into Politics
“Words alone are not enough.” Corporate moves to halt political funding and decry the forces behind the Jan. 6 riot have accelerated a broader movement in business to address social and political issues.
www.wsj.com
I've hesitated to call Donald Trump a fascist. Until now | Opinion
I’ve hesitated to call Donald Trump a fascist. Until now | Opinion
After last week the label seems not just acceptable, but necessary.
www.newsweek.com
The Cheney-McCarthy rift busts open
The Cheney-McCarthy rift busts open
The Republican leaders’ split on impeachment presages a bigger battle over Trump and the GOP.
www.politico.com
Beaten, sprayed with mace and hit with stun guns: police describe injuries to dozens of officers during assault on U.S. Capitol
Beaten, sprayed with mace and hit with stun guns: police describe injuries to dozens of officers during assault on U.S. Capitol
Authorities say many officers face long recovery following riot
www.washingtonpost.com
Trump Authoritarianism Denial Is Over Now
Trump Authoritarianism Denial Is Over Now
Just weeks, ago, conservatives insisted Trump would concede if he lost the election.
nymag.com

Find us on Facebook

The Valley Citizen
PO Box 156
Downtown Bear Postal
1509 K Street
Modesto, CA 95354

Email us at:
thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Footer

The Valley Citizen
PO Box 156
Downtown Bear Postal
1509 K Street
Modesto, CA 95354

Email us at:
thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Subscribe for Free

* indicates required

Search

• Privacy Policy

Copyright © 2021 The Valley Citizen

Dedicated to the memory of John Michael Flint. Contact us at thevalleycitizen@sbcglobal.net

Editor and publisher: Eric Caine

Website customization and maintenance by Susan Henley Design