Based on her performance during last Thursday night’s debate in downtown Modesto, Alexandra Duarte is counting on riding the MAGA train to victory in California’s June primary — she calls it “MCGA” as in, “Make California Great Again.”

Ms. Duarte is running against incumbent State Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil in California’s 4^th District election this November. California’s “jungle primary” system requires a field of multiple candidates to be winnowed to two after a June primary. The third candidate in the race is Tuolumne County Supervisor Jaron Brandon.

Depending on one’s perspective, Ms. Duarte may or may not have gained from her dependence on two and only two of Donald Trump’s signature memes, MCGA (MAGA) and hostility towards anything “transgender.” She repeated “Make California Great Again” over and over. During an hour-long debate, she brought in transgender issues six* times, regardless of context.

By the sixth* repetition of “transgender,” there were audible groans throughout the audience — over 200 people at 927 10^th Street in downtown Modesto. By far the loudest round of applause of the night came when Brandon said,

“Let’s quit picking on transgender kids.”

Brandon and Alvarado-Gil were more prepared on the issues. As the debate went on, Duarte increasingly spoke in vague generalities. Alvarado-Gil showed a much broader and deeper knowledge of how government actually works. So did Brandon.

Brandon and Alvarado-Gil also showed strong support for food programs for the Valley’s needy citizens, especially children.

“Feeding people is good for business,” said Brandon. “Children can’t learn in school when they’re hungry.”

Neither Brandon nor Alvarado-Gil mentioned Duarte’s role as President of Stanislaus East Mutual Water Company, a consortium of groundwater-dependent orchard developers on Stanislaus County’s east side. Most of their property is outside any of the county’s water districts. The group as a whole is known as the, “Non-District East.”

In a letter dated August 8 of last year and addressed to the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association (STRGBA), Duarte outlined a proposal,

“…to maximize existing resources, improve modeling accuracy, and promote regional collaboration for sustainable water use.”

The letter goes on to suggest that the Modesto Surface Water Treatment Plant increase production so that Modesto and other cities throughout Stanislaus County reduce reliance on groundwater. Sounds good. The problem is that treated surface water is far more expensive than groundwater; bottom line: urban water rates throughout the county would skyrocket.

Many insiders, including Modesto Irrigation District’s Board Chairman, Robert Frobose, see Duarte’s proposal as an attempt to secure reduced-rate surface water for Non-District East almond growers at the expense of urban users, whose water rates would increase dramatically.

After reading Ms. Duarte’s letter, Frobose issued a debate question for Duarte reading in part as follows,

“that water company (Stanislaus East Mutual Water Company) is a few almond orchard developers that official reports have shown are overdrafting the water basin and causing environmental harm…in that (August 8) letter, you are asking that Modesto and surrounding cities be required to use surface water instead of groundwater, which would result in all the residents and ratepayers paying more for their daily water needs.”

The issue wasn’t raised during the debate.

Frobose believes Non-District East farm developers are trying to requisition taxpayer dollars to pay for the infrastructure and water needed to irrigate their almond orchards. He fears that if they gain political power, they can use undue influence to direct water policy throughout Stanislaus County, bringing rising costs to local tax and ratepayers.

Frobose follows water issues closely. He’s well aware that the overdrafted Colorado River, which serves much of Southern California’s water needs, can no longer meet the south’s water requirements. The resulting shortfalls will increase demand — and prices — for Northern California water. He also thinks we can’t count on normal snow packs and weather patterns going forward. Water is going to be scarcer and more expensive.

“Somebody’s got to be looking out for the ratepayers,” said Frobose last Thursday.

Of the three Senate candidates, Brandon and Alvarado-Gil have more experience in government than Duarte. Alvarado-Gil may have had a net loss of voters when she switched from the Democratic to Republican Party in 2024. District 4 is deep red, which is likely why Duarte has gone full MAGA.

Jaron Brandon, a fiscally conservative Democrat with a strong record of achievement in Tuolumne County, believes there is a bipartisan middle road for local  government, based on common needs for public education, public safety, affordable power — he’s especially eager to reduce PG&E’s dominance of the state energy market — and affordable housing. He clearly sees the need to prune and uproot the regulatory thicket that has prevented building affordable housing for decades.

In our current era of identity politics, party preferences have come to dictate elections more and more. Local candidates offer a way forward by emphasizing common needs and values. Perhaps it’s time to start listening to politician’s positions and holding them accountable once elected. Local government depends on local citizenship.

*An earlier version of this report had “five” rather than six times.